Don’t Vote For the Best Candidate
by Joel Goh
Here's my cold hard logical take on #GE2020.*
(1) Don't vote for the best candidate.
You often hear people say things like, "Vote wisely. Don't vote PAP out of fear or conformity. Don't vote Opposition out of rebellion or to show displeasure. Vote for the best candidate!".
The truth is, such statements feel good because they appeal to that side of us that wants to believe we are reasonable, logical, responsible people.
But here's the reasonable, logical, and responsible fact — if you are going to vote Opposition, it really doesn't matter whether a candidate is "good" or "lousy". Your MP will not be able to direct public policy, pass laws, or make constitutional changes. And he cannot stop the PAP's policies, laws, and constitutional changes. If you get a “lousy” Opposition MP, what is the worst thing he can do in Parliament? Spray graffiti? No, the only thing he can do is give a speech. That is literally all.
On other hand, if you are going to vote PAP, it also doesn't really matter whether a candidate is "good" or "lousy". The PAP's policies will largely be formulated by the Party holistically. Your MP will vote under the party whip anyway, so the PAP's policies will be passed regardless. Again, what is the worst thing he can do in Parliament? Give a speech.
Of course, there are differences between good and bad MPs. But the differences between candidates are minuscule and trivial (e.g. relating to their capacity as an estate manager or as your mailbox to the Government) compared to the differences in the alternative consideration I want to talk about, namely, Voting For the Best Outcome.
Unlike voting for the best candidate, voting for the best outcome requires a few more brain cells to wrap your head around. But I assure you that it's worth it. Unless, of course, you're the sort who is more concerned about whether your town council clears your rubbish efficiently rather than what sort of country and political system we are developing in the long-term. If you are that sort of person and would trade the nation's best interests for crumbs, I have nothing further to say to you. You needn't read beyond this point.
Voting for the best outcome means looking beyond the myopic issue of who “represents” you to seeing what effect your choice has on Singapore as a whole. Here, I’m not even talking about each Party’s manifesto and proposed policies, such as whether to raise GST, lower the voting age, or abolish NS, because those are subjective and debatable. They deserve a separate in-depth debate which I won’t go into here.
More importantly, as I will explain in my next point below, your vote won’t actually decide which Party’s policies Singapore will have. No matter how you vote, it is only the PAP’s policies that are going to be implemented anyway. Yes, by voting Opposition, you give them a chance to at least raise their own proposed policies in Parliament, so those policies count in that very limited sense. But the main point here is that your vote won’t change which Party’s policies Singapore will implement.
What your vote can change are things even bigger than those policies. I will touch on 2 which have been brought up quite a few times this GE:
- First, whether the PAP retains a supermajority in Parliament.
- Second, whether Singapore retains the GRC system.
(2) The PAP will retain supermajority in Parliament.
Don't let the excitement of the election campaign mislead you. On 11 July, we will wake up to a PAP-governed Singapore once again. Most of us want that, but that's beside the point.
This outcome is assured. The PAP will continue to wield a supermajority in Parliament even if the Opposition wins in the most dramatic and extreme way possible. Taking into account the 3-cornered fights, PAP strongholds, and the candidates being fielded, we can do a rudimentary back-of-envelope calculation to see what happens if we assume the Opposition wins big. Like, really big. This assumes the extreme event that, first, everyone in the middle ground votes Opposition, and second, even many die-hard PAP voters are won over and switch to the Opposition. So let's give the Opposition the most seats it can possibly win in such an extreme scenario:
Workers’ Party (let's go extreme and assume WP wins all 21 seats it is contesting):
Progress Singapore Party: * West Coast (5) * Marymount (1)
- Aljunied (5)
- East Coast (5) <— See what I mean by extreme? Can you imagine hundreds of thousands of Singaporeans kicking out Heng Swee Keat?
- Marine Parade (5) <— Look how extreme we are going. Tan Chuan-Jin and Edwin Tong losing to the WP's C team?
- Sengkang (4)
- Hougang (1)
- Punggol West (1)
- Total: 21 seats
Total: 6 seats
Singapore Democratic Party: * Holland-Bt Timah (4) <— Imagine Vivian Balakrishnan losing to Tan Jee Say. Now, that's what I call extreme. * Bt Batok (1) <— Singaporeans choosing Chee Soon Juan for the first time in history after decades of just saying "no"? You got it — we are going extreme here. * Total: 5 seats
People’s Voice: * Jalan Besar (4) <— Ooo, what did I say about extreme? Just imagine a world where the majority of voters choose Lim Tean over Denise Phua.
Total: 4 seats
Grand total: 36 Opposition seats. PAP retains a majority in Parliament with 57 seats (61%). (There are 93 seats in Parliament.)
In other words, the PAP retains a comfortable majority even in this ridiculously extreme situation. Let’s be clear — we are not in such an extreme situation. People are not rioting on the streets from mass discontent. There is no widespread starvation or major scandal by the incumbent. Our Prime Minister did not steal money to buy his wife a mansion of handbags.
In the last GE, the Opposition won only 1 GRC and 1 SMC — 6 seats. The PAP won even Chiam See Tong's stronghold of Potong Pasir. To expect the Opposition to win 36 seats this time is wishful thinking.
So let's step back to reality. No one can predict how voters choose. But realistically, even if the Opposition somehow manages to bewitch everyone they meet, it is simply not possible for them to deprive the PAP of its supermajority.
(3) What is the supermajority and why does it matter?
Many people, including Lee Hsien Yang (who, together with his sister Lee Wei Ling, have been accusing their brother of being dishonourable, but who ultimately chose not to contest in this GE), have talked about depriving the PAP of its supermajority (i.e. having 66.6% of seats in Parliament).
As I showed above, only a fantasist can seriously expect the PAP to lose its supermajority this GE. The PAP will retain their supermajority, and retain it comfortably even if the Opposition somehow wins a freak election and conquers a few more GRCs. Indeed, even if all the WP candidates win, the PAP will still have a comfortable supermajority.
Singapore's constitution, like all constitutions, is a special law. It is the supreme law of the land. This can be contrasted with what we may call "ordinary laws". Ordinary laws can be made or changed by Parliament if a simple majority (50%) vote to approve them. In contrast, changes to the Constitution require a supermajority (66%).
You've probably heard of the balance of powers. In most political systems, including Singapore, what we call “The Government" is really 3 branches which are supposed to be independent of each other so that they can counter each other:
How do they balance each other? And how does the Constitution feature in this? Let me give an example in 5 acts:
- First, the Executive (i.e. Ministers, who come from the governing Party).
- Second, the Legislative (i.e. Parliament, made up of both the governing Party MPs and Opposition MPs).
- Third, the Judiciary (i.e. Judges).
That was an extreme example. No one with the surname Tan need seriously worry for his life. But in a nutshell that is how the Constitution works — it is the highest law. It is meant to overrule and check against bad ordinary laws. That is why it must take a supermajority (instead of just a simple majority) to change the Constitution. This additional step is the whole point of having a Constitution.
- Act 1: Let's say tomorrow a Minister orders the police to arrest and execute everyone with the surname “Tan”. Our Court will intervene to stop them because there is no law that allows such a thing.
- Act 2: So the next day the Minister goes to Parliament and proposes a law that prescribes death for all Tans. If his governing party has a simple majority (50%) in Parliament, the law is passed. If they do not, the Opposition can vote against this law, so it will not be passed.
- Act 3: So let's say the governing Party holds a simple majority and passes the law. The Minister then orders the police to execute all Tans. What happens then? The Court will stop them again. But wait — isn’t there now a law that prescribes death for all Tans? Yes. But here is where the Constitution comes into play. The Court will point to the Constitution, which (expressly or impliedly) enshrines rules such as "Laws Must be Reasonable" and "People Can't be Put to Death Arbitrarily". Once again, the Minister is foiled.
- Act 4: So what can the Minister do now? Why, he can change the Constitution itself. And how? By having a supermajority (66.6%) in Parliament. With a supermajority, his Party can change the Constitution to remove the rules I mentioned above, and even insert in the Constitution the rule that all Tans must die.
- Act 5: And now, the Minister once again orders the death of all Tans. Once again, they run to the Court. But the Court cannot help them, because the Court’s job is to uphold the law. "It is for Parliament to change the law", they will say. The Tans die.
That is why so many Opposition candidates often talk about depriving the PAP of its supermajority. After all, they often say, why even have a Constitution if it can be changed just as easily as ordinary laws? You might as well do away with Acts 3 to 5 above. A Party with a supermajority will never need to worry about its ordinary laws being struck out by the Court because it can change the Constitution as easily as it changes ordinary laws. The Constitution becomes meaningless.
On the other hand, a Party with a supermajority can pass all laws big and small, including laws that change the supreme law of the land, very efficiently since they never have to win the votes of other parties in Parliament. This is useful when the Government wants to make many changes to a country’s laws, since they can do so without being stalled by political disagreement with other Parties. For example, in some other countries, the legislature gets stuck in stalemate and no law can be passed because no Party can get 50% of votes (or 66.6% for constitutional changes). In contrast, because the PAP had supermajority, they could efficiently introduce even major constitutional changes such as introducing the GRC system and the Reserved Presidential Elections, which I will talk more about later.
Ultimately, the question the Opposition poses is this — should we end a system where all our laws and even major constitution changes are passed without anyone apart from the PAP being able to veto them? On the other hand, since few can deny that the PAP has proven itself since Independence to be a good and competent government, is there a need to worry that the best men in the job are so fallible that we must have a safety mechanism to ensure that it is possible for bad laws and constitutional changes to be opposed?
As we have seen above, regardless of your opinion on the questions above, the reality is that it will be impossible for the PAP to lose its simple majority this GE. It will already take the most unthinkably extreme of extreme outcomes for the PAP to lose even its supermajority by a slim margin, where everyone who isn't a PAP die-hard votes for the Opposition regardless of who the Opposition is.
So it’s simply not going to happen. My take on this is that the PAP will not lose its supermajority this GE, no matter what.
(4) But how we vote will determine one thing — whether we retain the GRC system.
The other major outcome that will result from our country's voting pattern is whether Singapore retains the GRC system in the long-run.
In 1988, the PAP changed our Constitution to introduce the GRC system as a means to ensure our racial minorities get seats in Parliament. In a country where multiracialism is intrinsically important, every race should be represented in our law-making body. Singapore is the only country that has this GRC system, where citizens vote for a group of candidates rather than for a single individual in each constituency. This ensures that minorities will be represented because each group of candidates must include at least one racial minority.
Whether or not you agree with that argument, the GRC system has become a central feature in most criticisms of what the Opposition call an unfair electoral system, since you must vote for a group of people rather than a single individual in each constituency. They argue that this means there is "no real choice", since you will always be forced to vote "for" some people you don't want and vote "against" some people that you do want. Remember the point about not voting for the “best candidate”? The critic will say that you can’t even do that even if you wanted to.
The Opposition argue that the GRC system unfairly favours the PAP because it can use it to ensure voters never have a "real choice", by fielding one important Minister in every GRC. And you've heard it before. People often say, "I wish I could vote foagainst ABC, but aiyah no choice la, because that would mean also voting foagainst XYZ too”. This means that citizens will always end up voting for the PAP for the sake of the Important Minister in their GRC.
The Opposition will say that these people are falling into the "GRC Trap". Because as long as people are trapped into thinking in such myopic terms, GRCs will always succeed in deterring people from ever voting Opposition. After all, there will always be an Important Minister in every GRC that every citizen who wants to consider himself responsible and reasonable cannot imagine booting out, no matter his desire for Opposition representation.
The Opposition say that this system is unfair, undemocratic, and illogical. In GE2011, during the Battle for Aljunied, you often heard the WP saying that the GRC system is an irresponsible system because it gambles with our nation’s best interests. The PAP was effectively forcing Aljunied residents to choose between (a) kicking out our Foreign Affairs Minister and (b) having an Opposition voice in Parliament. The WP’s point is that you shouldn't strong-arm people into making such a lose-lose decision by having the GRC system.
On the other hand, the PAP’s point is that the GRC system is important to ensure racial representation. Racial representation is a very important thing in politics. That is why in 2016 the PAP also changed our Constitution to change the way we elect our President. Henceforth, the Presidentship will be “reserved” for a particular race if that race has not seen one of its members as President for the 5 most recent Presidencies. Although most people accused the PAP of making that change only in 2016 in order to do a “Tan Cheng _Block_” (to disqualify popular Dr Tan Cheng Bock who was expected to do well in the 2017 Presidential Elections which became reserved for only the Malay community because of this change), Law Minister K Shanmugam dismissed those criticisms. He said that the Government must do what is right, based on the system, rather than worry that people would accuse them of trying to knock out people they don’t like. In sum, like the race-based changes to the Presidency, the GRC system is meant to ensure our minority races are represented in Government.
Ultimately, the Opposition will put it this way — like it or not, it is a matter of choosing between biting the bullet and suffering an unpopular Opposition in Parliament for one term now, or having the GRC system forever. And with the GRC system, no one can ever realistically talk about voting “wisely” or for the “best candidate” because you always have no true choice. Do we want to continue to prize racial representation or is it more important to be able to truly choose which MPs to vote in and which ones to vote out?
On the other hand, the PAP will caution that without the GRC system, we may never see racial minorities in Parliament. It may be true that we had many racial minorities who won elections in the past, such as J B Jeyaratnam who was Indian and even David Marshall who as a Jew won Singapore’s first ever legislative elections. But Singapore society may be changing and it may become harder for racial minorities to win elections on their own without the GRC system to help them. And as a racially diverse country, we must guard against that.
Regardless of whether you agree with the GRC system, it will always remain in place to serve its purpose of ensuring racial representation. That is what some people want. The only way GRCs will ever be abolished is if the Opposition win several GRCs in a GE. Regardless of the cause for such an event, this will lead to the inevitable conclusion that the GRC system has become a liability for the country, rather than an advantage. Instead of ensuring minority representation, its most impactful effect would become the unnecessary loss of Important Ministers. Since that is too heavy a price to pay for even minority representation, the Government will have little choice but to abolish such a system. And since an Opposition victory in several GRCs is within the realm of possibility, your vote actually has an impact on this outcome.
(5) Conclusion.
Ultimately, given our current circumstances, the important question is not about whom you like or dislike. While it may feel like you are choosing a spouse, the reality is that the candidate you vote for will make a small difference to your life personally and to the country as a whole. Indeed, how you vote will have little impact on what policies we will see in the next 5 years because the PAP will surely win and pursue its policies. You may feel like you are choosing one manifesto over another, but the reality is that only one Party’s manifesto will be implemented, regardless of how you vote.
How you vote will also not change the fact that the PAP will continue to have a supermajority in Parliament and so will be able to effectively and efficiently pass all its policies for the next 5 years, whether through ordinary laws or constitutional changes. The Opposition will not break this supermajority, much less the PAP’s simple majority.
But how you vote will have a direct impact on one thing — whether Singapore continues to have the GRC system. The cold hard logical reality is that this is one thing your vote will realistically have an impact on in this GE. As I have explained above, there is merit to both sides of the GRC argument. In this analysis, I do not express any personal view on which I prefer. But you, the voter, must decide.
* [Disclaimer: In this Note I cite several arguments that have been raised across the political spectrum. As far as possible I have sought to present them in a balanced fashion. My purpose in this Note is to summarise and if possible distill those arguments, not endorse any of them. The only opinion I seek to express here is that, all politics aside, I merely observe that which has been summarised in my conclusion.]
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Google Docs for An Analysis of Explorer: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L50q9WMsK1AKqICQ64jNR6swtnSCPGVOhPnjHJ_sI1c/edit?usp=sharing submitted by InitiateOrwell to IdentityV [link] [comments] Reddit link to An Analysis of Explorer Kurt Frank: Paranoid schizophrenia, Kurt Schneider, Alice in the Wonderland Syndrome, Macropsia: https://www.reddit.com/IdentityV/comments/i5qmtp/an_analysis_of_explorer_kurt_frank_paranoid/ Translated with permission from lore analyser Ma Yi Jia (马一甲): https://meici674.lofter.com/post/1ea10181_12d02cff5 * Overall impression: Kurt is a really poor thing. Caring for children begins from caring for their mental health. * The accuracy of deductions is not guaranteed. This is just for viewing purposes. Please consider the official developers for accurate lore information. * Explorer’s deductions is probably the most abstract of all the characters. Even the chronological order in his stories are jumbled up (malicious intent from developers.jpg) TL;DR: One of the inspirations for Explorer is Swiss-born adventure novelist Georges Arthur Surdez. He was the first person to use the term "Russian Roulette" in books. Deduction story analysis: Kurt’s deduction story does not follow a chronological order, but is randomized. The actual chronological order should be 1/12-5-4-6-2-(456)-7-8-9-10-3-12. The brackets signify parts that will be mentioned. Plot summary: Kurt accompanied his parents in their travels all over the world, moving from place to place, so he hardly spent a lot of time staying in a specific school. His parents may have argued often, which led to the development of a sensitive, introverted, and avoidant personality. During his childhood, with the rise of the printing industry and the popularity of adventure novels, he consumed a lot of related books, and indulged in fantasies. At a very young age, he joined the barracks (I’m leaning towards the boy scouts). He remained as a recruit for a very long time, and gained a sense of social identity through sharing with others the stories he had read. When he completed his service, and had explored outside for some time, his parents believed he should receive an education. Kurt followed their wishes. However, his experience at school was vastly different from the barracks. People mocked his experiences in the barracks, and believed that he fabricated his (actually true) stories. During this period, Kurt’s avoidant personality developed further, eventually progressing from a neurosis to a disorder. After he saw illusions, he chose to quit school, and wanted to earn money as an adventurer (he may have even attempted writing novels during this time). However, he unfortunately got addicted to gambling, and owed debts. He had no place to go. On one hand, he indulged within his own fantasies; on the other, he faced pressures from reality. When he heard about the manor, he brought along his favourite adventure novel and travelled to the manor, hoping he could clear his debt and become a true explorer. This textual analysis will begin with an introduction of Kurt (translations amended from Gamepedia): The adventurer Kurt Frank was born in Yorkshire, England. After his birth, he moved with his parents and immigrated. He went from England to Italy, then to France, and back to England, constantly passing by all sorts of adult travelers. This unique period of experience made Kurt feel like a migratory bird, forming a typical case of avoidant personality. He found it difficult to concentrate, and was fascinated with reading novels everyday about ancient artifacts and expeditions, such as the classic Gulliver’s Travels. He kept surmising that he was a great adventurer. As an experienced adventurer, Kurt is passionate about exploring the limits of mankind. He did not hesitate to sail across the English Channel, to ride a hot air balloon across old-growth forests, completing seemingly impossible travels. After receiving a mysterious invitation letter, Kurt is about to join this game of life-and-death. There is no question that he is already a renowned master of survival, but he hopes to become the ultimate winner. (Headache) Cleary, this section contained a large amount of information. After considering the clear symptoms of hallucination within the deduction stories, Kurt’s experiences include both real and imaginary experiences. We are not sure how much of his story can be considered as actually having taken place. Despite that, if we can’t find anything relevant, this textual analysis does not even need to be written. While searching for information relevant to Kurt, we can discover 2 important points of breakthrough. Firstly: Avoidant personality disorder Secondly: Russian Roulette Avoidant personality disorder is first recorded in ICD-6. The reference I used was from ICD-10, and the information on Wikipedia is based on the latest DSM. https://preview.redd.it/my285iya6qh51.png?width=347&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cab7342a295ec8cdae49e33f9e8c8a793bd1b7a From ICD-10 https://preview.redd.it/0os1m79e6qh51.png?width=748&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfc4853d96f998cb3185d275526a40d98826120e You may skip over the section from here until the part on psychoanalysis. You may be asking, what’s the ICD? What’s the DSM? The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) is a health care classification system that provides diagnostic codes for nuanced classifications of a wide variety of signs, symptoms, abnormal findings, complaints, social circumstances, and external causes of injury or disease. The ICD is maintained by the World Health Organization (WHO). All health conditions are mapped onto corresponding generic categories together with specific variations, and are assigned with a designated code up to 6 characters long.In layman terms, it is a systematic classification of human diseases. The earliest proponent of a standardized and consistent disease classification was Nightingale (yes, the lady with the lamp). She had advocated the idea in the 1860 International Statistical Congress. It was widely received, and the first version of the ICD was finally established in 1893. However, no manual was provided before the 6th edition. In other words, the complete set only appeared in ICD-6. Another term, DSM: The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) is a taxonomic and diagnostic tool published by the American Psychiatric Association (APA). In the United States, the DSM serves as the principal authority for psychiatric diagnoses.Although the ICD resolved many problems, it lumped both biological illness and mental disorders together. When World War 2 began, the doctors found the ICD inconvenient and unsystematic while checking for illnesses. In response to Legionnaires’ disease, the first DSM (DSM-1) was adapted from the ICD-6 and published in 1952. It can be seen that the study of psychiatric illnesses was highly related to historical wars. Many of the 60 different mental illnesses within the DSM were associated with post-traumatic stress disorder. Why are we discussing medical terminologies? Because this is relevant to the era Kurt lived in - human beings are inseparable from their sociocultural context. We need to use the manner in which mental disorders were studied in Kurt’s era to discuss how he developed an avoidant personality. The first 2 editions of DSM were largely influenced by psychodynamics, so psychoanalytic terminologies often appeared. That’s right, those are Freud’s. Of course, we are not going to follow his crooked path in discussions about sexual drives. The current psychological community also no longer recognizes psychoanalytic theories. Thus, my analysis is coming as an outsider. Please do not take this as an actual academic analysis. Next, psychoanalysis would be utilized to understand Kurt’s past and current mental state. You may skip over this section to read the deductions. Firstly, psychoanalytic theory has a few basic tenets:
Why the need to fabricate? Through self-enhancement and inflation of his self-esteem, he protected himself from harm coming from the outside world. We know that he started fabricating stories in the barracks. As an immigrant or foreigner to a new land, Kurt felt anxious and worried. Through self-glorification, he was able to make others aware of his existence and reduce his anxiety. At the same time however, this influenced Kurt’s entire life, and eventually worsened his mental state. An individual’s personality is usually shaped in his youths. I deduce that he joined the barracks at a very young age, perhaps 15 or 16 years old, or even younger. Why did he choose to be an explorer? As colonies were developed, adventure stories were welcomed by many. Many of the classic science fiction works and horror stories first appeared within and after that period of time. There were also many fantasy novelists in that era (e.g., our dearest Mr. Lovecraft). An adventurer was the symbol of bravery and manliness, accompanied with the characteristic of leading a wandering but smooth-sailing life, an explorer is someone that younger Kurt would aspire to be. What is the purpose of fabricating? To show others the tenacious side of him, to earn others’ support, trust, and love. From Kurt’s introduction: “From England to Italy, then to France, and back to England, constantly passing by all sorts of adult travelers.” As a child, Kurt did not gain a regular sense of emotional security from his family. His language barrier made it difficult for him to communicate with others, naturally leading to the development of an introverted personality. Most importantly: adult travellers. A child can hardly distinguish his existence and capability in front of a group of adults (especially in front of male adults). Thus, he craved for an existence that is either equal to, or superior to others. The role of an explorer happened to satisfy this fantasy, so he accepted this identity. This defense mechanism is considered as identification, whereby the individual “assimilates an aspect, property, or attribute of the other and is transformed wholly or partially by the model that other provides.” We can find that, Kurt later did not fear travelling, and instead amplified this behaviour to explorations. In other words, his defense mechanism is inclusionary rather than exclusionary. This is a part of his personality, which we will further discuss later on. Kurt may previously have a neurotic disorder, also known as neurosis. The term was used for more common psychological problems with no symptoms of abnormal brain functioning, irrational thinking, delusions, or hallucinations. Individuals do not violate social standards, but experience chronic distress, are self-defeating, or lack the ability to adapt to their environment. However from deduction 8, after entering university, his illness worsened. There is a possibility that it had developed into psychosis. This condition is distinguished from neurosis in terms of property (psychosis as a disorder of the mind, neurosis as a disorder of the nervous system) and severity. Individuals with a psychotic illness often behave in ways that markedly deviate from social norms, and often experience difficulties determining what is real and what is not. In other words, a loss of touch with reality. This matches the part where Kurt sees a dragon; it had begun to affect his everyday life. Before we talk about the original inspiration for Kurt, we first talk about the deduction story. Kurt’s deductions are very interesting. I will be putting them in the order I have analysed (i.e., 1/12-5-4-6-2-[456]-7-8-9-10-11-3-1/12). https://preview.redd.it/euuy9vrq6qh51.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad012b90b8c18773b65ab9c6d3207875caac13cc Here we connect two sections together as the introduction of the deduction analysis, to highlight how important adventure stories were in Kurt’s childhood, and that he already had confused his own personal experiences with the story plot (the way in which children play). We have previously analysed that he spent much of his childhood drifting about. Introversion and language barriers (switching from English to Italian to French definitely involved a process) led Kurt to not have many friends. The nature of children is to play, so while he read, he naturally immersed himself with his imaginary friends. Such a characteristic is an expression of creativity. However, if it extends to adulthood, it becomes an unfortunate beginning for his life. As for why 12 is here: It is because this is a recollection of his childhood memories when he became an adult. We will talk about this point later. https://preview.redd.it/6t9668nu6qh51.png?width=354&format=png&auto=webp&s=56344805dbf99c7481efdeeb4c73038c7c5cee8a There may not necessarily be a chronological order to deduction 4 and 5, but I believe 5 can be placed in front in order to highlight the importance of adventure stories in Kurt’s life. We can see clearly from this section that Kurt had attempted to share stories to others and gained a sense of social identity. This suggests that he had entered a place where he could gain recognition: The barracks. https://preview.redd.it/uydcho3w6qh51.png?width=366&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cd555ff31ae5bcad8bb3a334f99da09c035b3e8 The title indicates the beginning of a lie. Yet, I do not believe Kurt had embellished himself with adventure story plots during his time in the barracks. He may have lied to himself sometimes, but they did not have serious consequences. He misses his time in the barracks because the people there treated him seriously. This beautiful memory made him believe that he could achieve something. So when did he start lying? After entering university. As for the details within the barrack, we will talk about it after the following image. https://preview.redd.it/5iwex0yy6qh51.png?width=351&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0c3c47829c4b9d1365a0452c55c6bfae6f646ea Regarding the external traits of Explorer and Mercenary, we find that other than Kurt possessing exploration skills (“Explore”), the other traits were not really associated with the military. The description of his exploration skills were “superior survival skills”, and not for marching or others. So my opinion is different from analysing Naib. I do not believe he joined a very professional military. In contrast, I believed that he had joined a temporary scout camp for boys or teens. Time to supplement with historical knowledge: Scouting https://preview.redd.it/eurnxr027qh51.png?width=286&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9445c4954fa1b3323381edd51da8cd38ec75e6e This movement originated from the Brownsea Island Scouts during the Second Boer War. The government believed that they should inculcate military ideologies to children, in case of times of need. (Of course, the nature of these movements are completely different today.) Why do I believe that Kurt was involved in scouting? Because for the barracks to be seen as a place with beautiful memories, especially for an introverted, thin, and weak individual, it suggests that Kurt did not experience any traumatizing events there. In other words, he never actually went to war, he never killed anyone. Instead, he only received some survival skills training and had the rare experience to get along happily with people around his age (might be around 15 or 16 years old). For a person that drifts about, having friends is such a joyous thing. He told them stories he had read, and learnt to make eloquent, persuasive public speeches. His friends may have even believed that some of his stories were from his own personal experiences. No wonder why Kurt misses them after entering university. https://preview.redd.it/t8ypz0d47qh51.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=c304e7e23368fa5aaf4bb2586dddb660187bc8e3 However, good times never last. After Kurt left the barracks (and may even have moved houses a few more times), they finally settled down in England and led a relatively stable life. As a result, his father requested him to attend university… it may not be a university, but a high school. Anyway, we can see from here that Kurt may have attended the military camp at an age beginning with “1x”. For a child that did not undergo training and moved from place to place, it is a bit too early, so I believe he may have been very young. A brief mention of the relationship between Kurt and his father: it is only a guess, but their frequent migrations may be influenced by his father’s work. Kurt has never mentioned his mother, so we cannot infer that their parents divorced. However, it is clear that the person that demanded him was his father, and the words used were very uncompromising. An introverted child follows his family over the long-term in moving from place to place. His father treats him rather inflexibly. When he’s alone, he spends it reading books. Kurt’s personality is clearly not accompanied with feminine traits of weakness and docility, suggesting he was not as influenced by his mother. It can be imagined that his parents are not very caring about the child (at least, emotionally), and their relationships may be strained. It is no wonder that Kurt never talked to his parents after experiencing problems at school; instead, immersing himself further within his imaginations. https://preview.redd.it/tdhrllt67qh51.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ca79aa963f1831274894c7e5ad4950827edfe6 In the first half of the deduction, the team members were probably the imaginary characters in Kurt’s stories, or the friends in his barracks. In the second half of the deduction, the “people” must be his school classmates. Kurt’s life experience was not a topic that students would be interested about, so it is also not surprising for them to reject and question his stories. Except, this clearly created a blow in Kurt’s self-esteem and triggered his avoidant personality. https://preview.redd.it/vcgd9jm97qh51.png?width=346&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d6cc438da4538b3b849102b7d349def7c52fad3 The failures in his life made him turn inwards mentally, where he began to deceive himself. This was where his delusions became more serious, and he began to lie. The current explorer Kurt was created from here on onwards. The persuasion skills he learnt in the barracks became effective (at first for himself, and then for others). He started thinking and believing he was the great explorer. https://preview.redd.it/rjxs1g1c7qh51.png?width=708&format=png&auto=webp&s=faa96eed257d51f0aa2248b617cf607a7abea210 Western dragons are not a good omen and are considered an existence of evil. It is often the villain in many adventure stories. Kurt had begun to hallucinate; the people that he believed to be dragons may have been his classmates. The conclusion also suggests that he noticed his confusion between what was real and what was not. https://preview.redd.it/trbws7ie7qh51.png?width=389&format=png&auto=webp&s=3054206e7ae18d01911dba377afb0f40a127d5db After realizing issues within his mental state, Kurt decided to leave this heartbreaking place. He dropped out of school, and may have argued with his family members. This worsened his psychological issues, which eventually developed into a disorder that affected his actual life. (Sentence issues had started surfacing within his diaries, almost giving the impression of disorganized speech) https://preview.redd.it/lxdqdcog7qh51.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9a13ce66937084fb49475bf2794b36fbbb430bc Probably after having a fall-out with his family, Kurt went his own way and made speeches by assuming the identity of an explorer. In his introduction, it was mentioned that he sailed across the English Channel, rode a hot air balloon across old-growth forests, and completed seemingly impossible travels… These stories probably circulated around this time. Based on his title, Kurt probably really did make certain adventures, but there were other stories that he had fabricated to trick others. Furthermore, because of his mental illness, he probably did not lie intentionally, but his brain believed that he had really experienced those adventures. He may even have written a basic autobiography to boast about his own adventure stories (just like within the deductions), but they were not entirely true. At this point in time, he probably disguised his introverted personality into a complete extroverted personality. His survival skills and exploration skills were also accumulated within this period. Of course, this leaves us with many other questions. For example, most explorers rely on sponsors for patronage and make money by delivering results. But Kurt… clearly does not have a specific sponsor. https://preview.redd.it/6se8loej7qh51.png?width=442&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbf51168607a510583ff9fc992ef9e24e6003388 As mentioned previously, without money, Kurt began to have an outstanding balance and may have gambled. He eventually owed a huge amount of debt and needed to find a way to pay them. The manor’s invitation was his lifesaver; he clutched at straws and went to the manor, along with his dreams and expectations of clearing his debts. And then And then! A breakthrough!!! The Russian roulette!!!! (The sudden agitation of a mental patient) Time to analyse (one of) the original inspirations for KurtA question: Where did the term “Russian Roulette” come from?https://preview.redd.it/44g2f8cm7qh51.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=052c2c38cf267490d6415c1d3f8ea84b3fc2779c In the story The Fatalist of 1840 by Russian poet Mikhail Yuryevich Lermontov, a character had gambled with his life by pulling the trigger of a flintlock pistol placed on his head. However, flintlock pistols do not have a spinning chamber, and the story did not utilize the term Russian roulette. Thus, the first person that used the term “Russian roulette” was Georges Surdez. It was mentioned in his 1937 short story Russian Roulette, and the term later became popularized through books. Georges Surdez is the inspiration for Explorer Kurt Frank: Born in Bienne, Switzerland, of French descent, he later became a writer of adventure stories. https://preview.redd.it/y1oe7o2p7qh51.png?width=366&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3670abc4531758a6b9193ff7a37f199028063a3 How is Georges similar to Kurt? A childhood marked by moving from place to place, an overbearing father, an intense hatred towards school experience, a passion towards exploration, and a love towards life in the barracks. Next there will be a simple biographical introduction for Georges Surdez. It is not difficult to realize the multiple similarities he shares with Explorer. Georges was born to a middle-class family in Bienne, Switzerland. His father Eugene was a watchmaker. The family life was outwardly perfect. In the middle of the 19th century, the arrival of the railway turned Bienne from a rural backcountry into a bustling city. Changes also occurred within people’s lives. Georges had elder brothers and sisters who were much older than him. He did not have much of an impression on them because they had moved to America while he was still very young. They would send letters and gifts home during Christmas. However, his father was envious of his children’s happy life in America. He was embittered and became dissatisfied with everything around him. As a young man, Georges’ father Eugene lived in New York for four years and remained awed by his memories of the city. Eugene eventually came to Bienne as a watchmaker. After a long time, he was no longer satisfied with his unchanging life. While Georges was still a few years old, Eugene decided to give up on everything he had currently. He brought along his whole family to settle down in a far away country, where he intended to search for a new job. However, one thing led to another. Triggered by Eugene’s pursuit of a new mistress or a drunken brawl that attracted the attention of the police, the family eventually moved across the border to a series of French towns. Georges’ childhood was spent with temporary friends in rented rooms. Different from Kurt… this original was much more disobedient. While he was 3 years old, he secretly climbed onto a huge truck. He toured the town for a few laps before finally being delivered back to his worried parents. At that time, he really enjoyed a series of adventure stories to pass the time. These novels were pocket-sized adventure stories full of heroes, villains, and gunfights. Surdez’s books cushioned him from the unhappiness of his parent’s marriage, but not from his two siblings’ tragic death before he was 6. His elder brother Gilbert died falling from a tree, and sister Blanche died in a sleigh accident. In 1907, a younger brother was born, bringing his parents back together for a while. However, Surdez’s father could not stop chasing other women for long. Two of his adult sisters intended to emigrate to America. Perhaps believing the break up of the family would be the final straw for their marriage, Surdez’s mother Marie suggested that they all start a new life in America. Yet after heading to America, he was mocked by his classmates due to language barriers. He mentioned in a letter: “I [sank] from a fine scholar to a semi-moron, tongue-tied and awkward, the target for jokes and laughter, pushed down to the bottom of the human scale as a peculiar, rather nervous importation from a quaint land.” There were many destitute soldiers on American streets, so Georges befriended them. From them as well as from the pocket-sized books, he learnt about even more adventure stories. Pulp magazines were also especially popular in America, allowing him to consume a large amount of stories in a short period of time. He started craving for an adventure. Pulp magazines were invented in 1896 by Frank Andrew Munsey. This person’s name may be the origin of Explorer’s surname. The term pulp derives from the cheap wood pulp paper on which various fantasy magazines were printed. Many of the famous science fiction authors had made their first publications in these magazines (e.g., E. E. Smith, the father of space opera). He dropped out of school at the age of 16, with his mind full of pulp adventure. Although he had raised his English proficiency to a native standard, his classmates continued to ostracise him, calling him a “dirty Swiss”, “square-head”, “froggy.” His French language proficiency allowed him to join the military. At that time, World War 1 had just started raging. He was considered too young to be dispatched to the frontlines; instead, he worked as a clerk and watched the war from the sidelines. After the war ended, he joined an American timber firm. As a result of work, he sailed for the French colony, and got away from his quarreling family. He even considered joining the Legion, but after experiencing it first hand, realised he was not cut out for it. Due to tax issues, he lost his job, and was forced to return to New York. After returning to New York, Georges attempted to earn a living by retelling his various experiences in the colony and by churning out adventure stories to submit for magazine publications. Due to his documentary style, he successfully became a professional writer of adventure stories. During his work, he continued to travel to various colonial settlements and got in touch with the legionnaires to gather more inspiration for his adventure stories. Even after he became a naturalized American citizen, he and his wife went to the French colonies in Africa and the Far East for a year, gathering more stories from the legionnaires. (He wasn’t exactly a serious writer. His writings contained some adult content, you may search for them if interested.) Unfortunately, their return was met with the financial crisis from the collapse of the New York stock exchange… Under this situation, Georges bravely continued to be an adventurer, submitted publications to the magazines, and boasted himself as being “very famous in foreign countries” to attract readers. On 30 January 1937 a 1,600-word piece of fiction by Georges called “Russian Roulette” appeared in the magazine; it tells of adventure, gambling, and death amongst foreign Legionnaires in an isolated North African outpost… He may not have ever thought that this fictional game would kill more than a thousand Americans. 10 years later, Georges’ marriage collapsed. His wife moved out to live with another man. Due to his age, he was not enlisted in World War 2, and could not obtain regular military wages to pay for various debts. The stories he had written were widely imitated, leaving his stories no longer valuable. Six years before he died, he published an autobiographical novel of his childhood, but sales were low. Georges went back to the surviving pulps and managed to keep a roof above his head. He eventually died at 49 years old from poverty and illness. Something worth mentioning is that Georges appeared to be a supporter of human equality. He had corresponded with black civil rights activists. However, because his letters are now missing, his actual attitude cannot be inferred. Regardless, the only thing that people remember him by is the Russian roulette; on the night of his death, 22 others who lost the game accompanied him in death. Greek mythology skin - Icarus Translated from Ma Yi Jia: https://meici674.lofter.com/post/1ea10181_12e9aa110 (This is not an actual analysis on Explorer, but just extra information on his Greek mythology skin) ![img](jug5cnxv7qh51 " ") Flying bravely towards the sky, but melted by the sunMythological allusions: In Greek mythology, Icarus is the son of the master craftsman Daedalus. Icarus and his father attempted to escape from Crete by means of wings constructed by feathers and wax. Icarus' father asks that he fly neither too low nor too high, so the sea's dampness would not clog his wings nor the sun's heat melt them. Icarus ignored his father's instructions not to fly too close to the sun; when the wax in his wings melted, he tumbled out of the sky, fell into the sea, and drowned. To remember Icarus, the island on which his body was buried was named as Icaria. https://preview.redd.it/91uxb4mz7qh51.png?width=353&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b16d15e7f4bbc159fdbfbde6632914e7040a09c Details on the skin: Firstly is the colour choice. The main colour scheme of Icarus is not red, but blue. Blue and green are seen as second class colours in Ancient Greece, and are not as valued as red, black, and white, which are considered to be the highest class colours. Icarus is indeed the only skin within the Greek mythology series (Great Hero, Cerynitis’ Bane, Apollo) that is not linked with any god, and only with humans. It may be because of this that the colour scheme is different. https://preview.redd.it/mnc7rcmk8qh51.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=693b9c3566ee9a6388320d574c4f61e473cce4da Ancient Greek sandals featured a multitude of straps securely fastened to the foot. The soles were made of cattle skin, or of even better quality, and made up of several layers. Ancient Greeks went barefoot indoors, wearing sandals only when walking outside. Slaves and women often went outdoors barefooted. https://preview.redd.it/ejl8w9sc8qh51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=9058780ac2600116ade03a8ba3081eab40d4cb44 Apollo’s shoes are the ones in the middle. The others (Great Hero, Cerynitis’ Bane, Icarus) have the first type of shoes and are accompanied with armors. A brief discussion about the association of mechanical puppets and Ancient Greece: Even though it may sound unbelievable, “robots” already existed in Ancient Greece. In 400 BC, Plato’s friend Archytas, the founder of mathematical mechanics, had designed the first self-propelled flying device, a pigeon-shaped machine. In the 2nd century BC, Ancient Greeks invented the first automaton, a movable statue powered by water, air, and steam. Records of mechanics in Western civilization can be traced to Homer’s poem Iliad (In Eastern civilization, the Gujinzhu). In it, the god of fire Hephaestus utilized gold to create a set of automated assistants. Thus, the combination of ancient Greek designs and puppets is not weird, but highly fitting. (Ancient technology is a lot more brilliant than we believe it to be) This textual analysis will end here. Again, please consider the official developers for accurate lore information. Thank you for reading so far. |
Answer: According to Fortune City, the word Dyke was possibly from Boudicca (Bou-dyke-ah), a Celtic queen who organized a revolt against the Roman Empire in 67 A.D. Boudicca was seen as a threat to the power structure.Later, as its connotation changed to refer to lesbians. Use census records and voter lists to see where families with the Witt surname lived. Within census records, you can often find information like name of household members, ages, birthplaces, residences, and occupations. View Census Data for Witt. Witt Family Occupations What did your Witt ancestors do for a living? Share. In 1940, Farmer and Terms of Use. © 2017 Name Origin Research. All rights reserved. Early History of the laughlin family. This web page shows only a small excerpt of our laughlin research. Another 136 words (10 lines of text) covering the years 1281, 1300, 1789, 1819, 1828, and 1842 are included under the topic Early laughlin History in all our PDF Extended History products and printed products wherever possible. William Crockeford (1775-1844), originally a fishmonger, set up a famous gambling club "Crockford's Club" in 1827, out of which he amassed 1,200,000 shillings in a few years. The first recorded spelling of the family name is shown to be that of Richard de Crocford, which was dated 1214, Pipe Rolls of Surrey, during the reign of King John known The sandwich as we know it was popularized in England in 1762 by John Montagu, the 4th Earl of Sandwich. Legend has it, and most food historians agree, that Montagu had a substantial gambling Origins and Meanings of Surnames. Abercrombie is a Scottish place name from a so-named location in Fife which was earlier called Ababcrumbach .It is derived from the Brittonic aber = confluence added to the name of a river, which was named from crom = crooked + the local suffix -ach .Abercromby is a variation.. Abbott : English Occupational name for the man who lived in the house of the Abbott The first bearer of the name Blanchard most likely took on this name based on an early member of the family who was a person with a whitish, or white appearance having derived from the Old French word blanchart. Experts theorize that Blanchard may have also been a nickname for someone with an exceptionally pure character, since white was the symbolic color of purity during the Middle Ages. Brown Clan . Brown Clan Crest: A lion rampant holding in it's paw a fleur-de-lys. Brown Clan Motto: Floreat Majestas (Let majesty flourish). Brown Clan History: The Brown, or Broun surname, as it was often spelled, is very common throughout Scotland and in most instances is a simple reference to the colour brown, as in brown hair, or eyes. The company eventually merged twice, finally becoming the Meriden Cutlery Company. A wealthy man at this point, he joined another company that manufactured door hardware. He co-signed loans for a friend and after the friend did not make good on the loans, Walter decided to retire on the funds left after paying back the loans.
[index] [2896] [5593] [5650] [4071] [2666] [1924] [5356] [5538] [1869] [8954]
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